Model Perawatan Generator di PLTU Paiton menggunakan Metode Naive Bayes

Abstract

The Paiton Steam Power Plant (PLTU) is one of the main sources of electrical energy in East Java, which plays a vital role in maintaining a sustainable electricity supply. The reliability of generator units is a key element in maintaining stable energy distribution. However, the high frequency of sudden generator failures poses serious challenges, such as increased downtime and increased maintenance costs. To address these challenges, this study aims to design a generator maintenance prediction model based on the Naive Bayes algorithm with a predictive maintenance approach. This study uses historical maintenance data and key sensor parameters such as temperature, oil pressure, and vibration as input. The data is analyzed through several stages, namely data preprocessing, selection of relevant features, and labeling generator conditions into three categories: Normal, Warning, and Critical. The Naive Bayes model is trained to classify the data probabilistically to generate predictions of future generator conditions. Model evaluation using accuracy metrics and a confusion matrix shows that the model successfully achieved an accuracy rate of 89% and was able to provide early warnings of potential failures up to 3 days before failure occurs. The implementation of this system is expected to support the shift in maintenance strategies from reactive and scheduled systems to data-driven predictive systems. Implementing failure predictions allows the technical team at the Paiton PLTU to conduct planned maintenance, avoid sudden disruptions, and extend equipment lifespan. Thus, this model has the potential to reduce operational downtime by up to 25%, while providing significant savings in operational and logistics costs. This research also shows that integrating machine learning technology into energy facility management can improve the efficiency and resilience of the overall electric power system.