Analisis Prediksi Penjualan Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Mamdani dan POM-QM : Studi Kasus pada CV Mamifood Sukses Abadi

Abstract

In the increasingly competitive Industry 4.0 era, companies need to forecast product demand to meet consumer needs and improve operational efficiency. CV Mamifood Sukses Abadi, an MSME that produces milk and cheese-based foods, has faced sales fluctuations in the last two years, thus requiring accurate forecasting to plan production strategies and resource management. This research aims to forecast demand using the Fuzzy Mamdani method and the POM-QM application. Fuzzy Mamdani was chosen for its ability to handle decision-making with multiple criteria and balanced weights, while POM-QM was used to validate predictions through quantitative methods. Product sales data for the years 2022 and 2023 were analyzed to produce accurate forecasts. The methods used include Moving Average for forecasting and evaluation of the results using MAPE. The analysis results show that the Moving Average method with N = 2 produces a MAD value of 402.523 and a MAPE of 22.155%, while the results of Fuzzy Mamdani show that product demand in the next period tends to decrease. This research is expected to provide insight for CV Mamifood Sukses Abadi in planning a more efficient production strategy.