Analisis Perencanaan Peramalan Dan Safety Stock Sprite 250ML Dengan Metode Time Series Di PT. XYZ

Adhe Rebeka Pardosi; Iriani Iriani

doi:10.61132/jupiter.v2i2.84

Authors

Adhe Rebeka Pardosi Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur
Iriani Iriani Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/jupiter.v2i2.84

Keywords:

Forecasting, Re-Order Point, Safety Stock

Abstract

Sprite drink is a soda drink that is very popular among all groups. Demand is uncertain and always changes from time to time, making product availability difficult to control and often causes overstock or stockout problems. Therefore, inventory control is needed, which can be done by forecasting, determining safety stock and good re-order points. To obtain effective and efficient planning, the number of orders must be based on the number of past mass requests so as to reduce the occurrence of overstock or stockouts. With the problems experienced by PT. XYZ, the forecasting method used is the time series forecasting method. In this case, the time series methods used are Simple Average, Single Moving Average and also Single Exponential Smoothing. After carrying out several calculations, we obtained a Mean Absolute Centage Error (MAPE) value of 49.379%, a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 2297.145, a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 2912.495 and also a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 8,482 .628 and forecasting results of 4504 pcs every month. Based on the calculation results, the proposal given is to reorder Sprite 250ML when the inventory in the warehouse reaches 1548 pcs with a safety stock of 540 pcs.

References

Awaluddin, Robi, Resky Fauzi, dan Dikdik Harjadi. 2022. “Perbandingan Penerapan Metode Peramalan Guna Mengoptimalkan Penjualan ( Studi Kasus Pada Konveksi Astaprint Kabupaten Majalengka ).” Jurnal Bisnisman: Riset Bisnis dan Manajemen 3(1):12–18.

Hamirsa, M. H., dan R. Rumita. 2022. “Usulan Perencanaan Peramalan (Forecating) dan Safety Stock Persediaan Spare Part Busi Champion Type RA7YC-2 (Ev-01/EW-01/2) Menggunakan metode Time Series Pada PT Triangle Motorindo Semarang.” Industrial Engineering Online Journal 11(1):1–10.

Indah, Dewi Rosa, dan Evi Rahmadani. 2018. “Sistem Forecasting Perencanaan Produksi dengan Metode Single Eksponensial Smoothing pada Keripik Singkong Srikandi Di Kota Langsa.” Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Akutansi (JENSI) 2(1):10–18.

Itsna R, Niswah, Intan Nirwana A, Revita Widya P, dan Mohamad Bastomi. 2023. “Analisis Metode Economic Order Quantity, Safety Stock, Reorder Point, dan Cost of Inventory dalam Mengoptimalkan Manajemen Persediaan Umkm Bakso Pedas.” Indonesian Journal of Contemporary Multidisciplinary Research 2(1):29–44. doi: 10.55927/modern.v2i1.2750.

Limanda, K. Y. 2022. “Analisis Rantai Pasok Dan ERP PT. Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pada Masa Covid-19.” … Manajemen, Ekonomi, Keuangan dan … 3(1):448–55.

Qurrota, Hadny, Hanif Ardian, dan Maulidina Khairannisa Nunuh. 2021. “MATRIK Jurnal Manajemen dan Teknik Industri-Produksi Pemilihan Metode Peramalan Jumlah Permintaan Koran dengan Tingkat Kesalahan Terendah.” XXI(2). doi: 10.350587/Matrik.

Rini, Monanda Wandita, dan Nessa Ananda. 2022. “Perbandingan Metode Peramalan Menggunakan Model Time Series.” Tekinfo: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri dan Informasi 10(2):88–101. doi: 10.31001/tekinfo.v10i2.1419.

Sutisna, Felix, dan Hendy. 2019. “Analisis Perbandingan Tingkat Kesalahan Metode Peramalan Sebagai Upaya Perencanaan Pengelolaan Persediaan yang Optimal pada PT Duta Indah Sejahtera.” Jurnal Bina Manajemen 8(1):46–47.