Analisis Peramalan Persediaan Sparepart Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing di PT. XYZ

Daffa Zakysyahir Wardana; Novel Tri Buana; Aswan Munang

doi:10.61132/jupiter.v2i6.456

Authors

Daffa Zakysyahir Wardana Telkom University
Novel Tri Buana Telkom University
Aswan Munang Telkom University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61132/jupiter.v2i6.456

Keywords:

Exponential smoothing, forecasting, safety stock

Abstract

XYZ is a manufacturing company that produces Yamaha brand motorbike parts such as electrical switches, electrical sockets, lever assembly and horns. Many of the products sent were returned by customers because they did not meet quality standards, for example in March 2024 there were 1,420 pcs out of a total of 19,900 pcs that were returned. This means that companies have to increase production time and costs to replace defective products that are returned because they do not have safety stock. Forecasting is needed to control the production system so that it does not experience over stock and safety stock shortages. This research aims to provide recommendations for forecasting methods that companies can use to minimize the occurrence of production excesses and shortages in the company. Forecasting is done based on historical company sales data for 12 months. The method used is the exponential smoothing method which is then tested whether this method can be used in the future. This calculation uses the help of POM-QM (Production Operation Management – Quantitative Method) software. Calculations are carried out by testing the MAD, MSE, and MAPE values to obtain calculation error values. The results obtained by forecasting the main sw srtg lock assembly product using the exponential smoothing method were 15,708 for demand for the next period, MAD 3.38, MSE 22.84 and MAPE value 26%. Based on these results, the exponential smoothing method can be a recommendation for companies to forecast future demand. This is because the value of forecasting accuracy or MAPE is reasonable. The smallest percentage of MAPE values has a fairly minimal possibility of error in forecasting results.

Author Biography

Novel Tri Buana, Telkom University

Teknik Industri

References

Agrippina, Annisya Parera, dan Fandi Yulian Pamuji. 2024. “Komparasi Peramalan Penerimaan Siswa Baru Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing.” Jurnal PROSISKO 11(1):35–44. doi: 10.30656/prosisko.v11i1.8059.

Amiludin, Seftian, dan Nina Aini Mahbubah. 2023. “Evaluasi Peramalan Permintaan Produk Kopi Bubuk Menggunakan Pendekatan Time Series di UKM Eyang Kakung - Gresik ” Sigma Teknika 6(1):33–43.

Amin Kadafi, Muhammad, dan Ayu Delvina. 2021. “Analisis pengendalian persediaan bahan baku dengan safety stock optimum.” Forum Ekonomi 23(3):553–60.

Anjani, Intan Giri, Alshalva Berliana Saputri, Azka Nabalah Putri Armeira, dan Dwi Januarita. 2022. “Analisis Konsumsi Dan Produksi Minyak Kelapa Sawit Di Indonesia Dengan Menerapkan Metode Moving Average.” JURIKOM (Jurnal Riset Komputer) 9(4):1014. doi: 10.30865/jurikom.v9i4.4506.

Ardiansah, Irfan, Irsyad Fauzi Adiarsa, Selly Harnesa Putri, dan Totok Pujianto. 2021. “Penerapan Analisis Runtun Waktu pada Peramalan Penjualan Produk Organik menggunakan Metode Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing Application of Time Series Analysis in Organic Product Sales Forecasting using Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Met.” Jurnal Teknik Pertanian Lampung 10(4):548–59.

Brahmantyo, Riyondha Aprilian, Januar Wibowo, Vivine Nurcahyawati, Sistem Informasi, dan Universitas Dinamika. 2023. “Manajemen Persediaan Menggunakan Metode Safety Stock dan Reorder Point.” Jurnal Sains dan Informatika 9(April):89–99. doi: 10.34128/jsi.v9i1.431.

Dewi, Nindian Puspa, dan Indah Listiowarni. 2020. “Implementasi Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing untuk Peramalan Harga Bahan Pangan di Kabupaten Pamekasan.” Jurnal Teknologi Informasi & Komunikasi 11(2):219–31.

Hajjah, Alyauma, dan Yulvia Nora Marlim. 2021. “Analisis Error Terhadap Peramalan Data Penjualan.” Techno.Com 20(1):1–9. doi: 10.33633/tc.v20i1.4054.

Hamirsa, M. Hagi, dan Rani Rumita. 2022. “Usulan perencanaan peramalan (forecasting) dan safety stock persediaan spare part busi champion type RA7YC-2 (EV-01/EW-01/2) menggunakan metode time series pada PT triangle Motorindo Semarang.” Industrial Enginerering Online Journal 2:2.

Kertayuga, Dhatu, Edy Santoso, dan Nurul Hidayat. 2021. “Prediksi Nilai Ekspor Impor Migas Dan Non-Migas Indonesia Menggunakan Extreme Learning Machine ( ELM ).” Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer 5(6):2792–2800.

Maharani, Elsya, dan Ade Momon. 2023. “Analisis Pengaruh Nilai Bullwhip Effect dengan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing pada PT . XYZ.” Jurnal Serambi Engineering VIII(2):5503–9.

Mulyani, Sri, Diana Hayati, dan Ayu Novita Sari. 2021. “Analisis Metode Peramalan (Forecasting) Penjualan Sepeda Motor Honda Dalam Menyusun Anggara Penjualan Pada PT Trio Motor Martadinata Banjarmasin.” Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis 14(1):178–89.

Nurfadilah, Asyifaa, Widodo Budi, Eti Kurniati, Didi Suhaedi, Program Studi Matematika, Universitas Islam Bandung, dan Badan Pusat Statistik. 2022. “Penerapan Metode Moving Average untuk Prediksi Indeks Harga Konsumen.” Jurnal Matematika 21(1):19–25.

Nurhalizah, Mega, dan Helma Helma. 2022. “Analisis Pengendalian Persedaa Kayu dengan Metode Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) di PT. Sumber Tata Citra Mandiri (STCM).” Journal of Mathematics UNP 7(3):91. doi: 10.24036/unpjomath.v7i3.12987.

Olga, L. 2023. “Analisis Peramalan Permintaan Produk Kertas Menggunakan Metode Peramalan Linier Dan Metode Eksponensial Di Pt. Indah Kiat ….” Journal of Management and Industrial Engineering … 2(1):17–30.

Puspitasari, Mega Agustina, Rachman Arief, Institut Teknologi, dan Adhi Tama. 2023. “Peramalan Permintaan Produk Travel Pouch Pada CV . Sunflower Menggunakan Metode Single Moving Average.” Seminar Nasional Sains dan Teknologi Terapan 2–7.

Putri, Rachma Catur, dan Lukman Junaedi. 2022. “Penerapan Metode Peramalan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Pada Sistem Informasi Pengendalian Persedian Bahan Baku ( Studi Kasus : Toko Kue Onde-Onde Surabaya ).” Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Bisnis (JIKB) XIII(1):164–73.

Putri, Septiany, Farid Badruzzaman, dan Harahap Erwin. 2023. “Perbandingan Metode Single Moving Average dan Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Peramalan Jumlah Pengguna Pospay pada PT Pos Indonesia KCU Bandung.” Matematika: Jurnal Teori dan Terapan Matematika 22(1):15–22.

Rahayu, Anita, Arny Lattu, dan Mupaat Mupaat. 2022. “Analysis of Product Stock Inventory Forecasting Using Weighted Moving Average Method.” Jurnal Teknik Informatika (Jutif) 3(6):1631–38. doi: 10.20884/1.jutif.2022.3.6.421.

Rosadi, Sri Hardianti, Fitry Purnamasari, dan Ayu Saputri Bahar. 2024. “Penerapan Model Arima-Box Jenkins Dalam Peramalan Penerapan Model Arima-Box Jenkins Dalam Peramalan.” Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pendidikan 7(March). doi: 10.26858/jekpend.v7i1.57138.

Sa’diyah, Khanifatus, dan Narto. 2021. “Optimasi Persediaan Bahan Baku ( Studi Kasus di UD Harum Bungah Gresik ) Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem Industri.” Jurnal Rekayasa Sistem Industri 6(2):59–63.

Syahputri, Sarah, Sinar Sinurat, dan Imam Saputra. 2021. “Prediksi Kebutuhan Energi Listrik Pada PT. PLN (Persero) Rayon Aek Nabara Dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing.” Journal of Informatics 1(1):1–9.

Widyaningrum, Tania, dan Wiwi Prastiwinarti. 2022. “Penerapan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima) Terhadap Peramalan Permintaan Box Blender Di Pt Z.” Prosiding Seminar Nasional Tetamekraf 1(2):399–405.

Yoka Fathoni, M., Sena Wijayanto, Jl DI Panjaitan No, Kec Purwokerto Selatan, Kab Banyumas, dan Jawa Tengah. 2021. “Forecasting Penjualan Gas LPG di Toko Sembako Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series.” JUPITER (Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu dan Teknologi Komputer) 13(2):87–96.

Yuliadi, Yuliadi, Mohammad Taufan Asri Zaen, Rodianto Rodianto, dan Mega Tazayyun. 2022. “Rancang Bangun Galeri UMKM Britama Berbasis E-Commerce.” JURIKOM (Jurnal Riset Komputer) 9(3):715. doi: 10.30865/jurikom.v9i3.4300.